Nate Silver

Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028

Nate Silver argued that US politics is dominated by durable polarization, making most states and many election outcomes highly predictable. He also said California’s slow vote count reflects mail-ballot timing rather than fraud, and that Democrats’ strongest 2028 path may run through an anti-oligarch, youth-friendly insurgent message rather than Gavin Newsom.