The Q2 2026 Report Card: Who Won, Who Lost, and Why | The Weekly Wrap

Summary

Steve Eisman says the market bottomed at the end of Q1, rallied sharply through Q2, and then began to correct late in the quarter, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still up strongly but off their highs by June 24. His main thesis is that hyperscalers have become huge capital allocators with weak moats, which creates price-war risk and drives investors toward scarce beneficiaries like semiconductors; Micron’s blowout quarter is presented as the clearest example. In contrast, consulting and software names—especially Accenture—look vulnerable if AI reduces services demand, while Google’s talent losses reinforce the cooling hyperscaler narrative. He also flags GE Vernova as a beneficiary of AI data-center power demand, highlights SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and capital intensity after a large bond deal, and says Nike’s turnaround still lacks evidence. The episode ends with a critical look at Greenspan’s regulatory legacy and a view that Europe’s heavier regulation and slower growth make it a weaker investing market than the U.S.

Notes

• Q2 opened with a strong rebound from the end of Q1, then a late-quarter correction as investors reassessed leadership.
• As of last Friday, the S&P 500 was up 15% and the Nasdaq up 23% for Q2.
• By Wednesday June 24, those gains had eased to 13% for the S&P and 18% for the Nasdaq.
• Eisman frames hyperscalers as capital-intensive platforms with uncertain long-term ROIC.
• He says investors have been rotating toward beneficiaries of hyperscaler capex rather than the hyperscalers themselves.
• SanDisk and Micron were both up more than 200% in the quarter on scarcity demand.
• Micron’s quarter was described as extraordinary, with EPS up 1,215% year over year.
• Micron revenue was $41.5 billion, up 345% year over year.
• Eisman notes Micron had already been up 267% before the earnings release.
• He says Micron’s 2027 P/E was only 8.7x, implying earnings growth kept pace with the stock.
• Micron management said chip supply should stay constrained past 2027.
• That supply constraint is part of Eisman’s bullish scarcity thesis for memory and storage.
• Accenture’s quarter is used as evidence that AI may reduce demand for consulting services.
• Accenture reported only 3% revenue growth and 3% lower bookings.
• He suggests customers are spending on AI while cutting back elsewhere, leaving Accenture with weak net demand.
• GE Vernova got a positive catalyst from Chevron’s 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft.
• Most of the West Texas facility’s generation is expected to come from GEV turbines and electrical infrastructure.
• Eisman calls GEV one of the better AI power stories because of its bundled turbines-plus-electrification offering.
• SpaceX showed sharp IPO volatility, opening up 19% and then swinging both higher and lower over the following sessions.
• After the swings, SpaceX was only 14.5% above its IPO price.
• He points to a $20 billion SpaceX bond sale as evidence the business is capital intensive.
• The bond deal was later increased from $20 billion to $25 billion.
• Google’s AI story is weakened by senior departures to OpenAI and Anthropic.
• One departing executive had co-led Gemini AI models, and another senior DeepMind engineer left for Anthropic.
• Nike is still framed as a turnaround that has not turned around.
• Evercore’s Michael Benetti downgraded Nike from buy to hold.
• Q2 sector leadership favored infotech and industrials, while defensives lagged.
• Infotech was up 28% and industrials up 11% in the quarter.
• Energy fell 13%, giving back some of its war-related gains.
• Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities all lagged the broader market.
• Eisman says software and consulting are the main AI-disruption losers.
• Salesforce, Adobe, and Intuit were down 18%, 19%, and 39% respectively.
• Gartner and Accenture were down 18% and 35% respectively.
• He argues the danger is capital intensity without moats, which can lead to price wars and low returns on capital.
• Greenspan is criticized for allowing bank leverage to at least triple.
• He says Greenspan turned a blind eye to subprime mortgage abuse.
• Eisman says Greenspan’s legacy will not age well.
• On Europe, he argues heavier regulation comes with slower growth and weaker market returns.
• Germany has had flat GDP growth for the past three years.
• Eisman says tech is only 18% of the euro stock index versus almost 40% of the S&P 500.