Podcast
The Real Eisman Playbook
Steve Eisman discusses markets, investing, business cycles, and lessons from a career in finance.
Original source5% Rates, Bessent's Failed Gamble & What Comes Next w/ Krishna Guha | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 78
Krishna Guha argues the jump in long-term yields reflects a mix of Fed policy change, AI-driven borrowing, deficits, and oil shocks rather than one single cause. He also says Scott Bessent’s Treasury buyback effort was too small to matter much, while the Fed’s reduced forward guidance may have added to market volatility.
Why Private Equity's Software Bet Is Going to Zero | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues FICO’s mortgage moat was broken by regulatory action, then makes a broader case that private equity’s huge software bet is vulnerable to rising rates, AI pressure, and a 2027 refinancing wall. He closes with macro and research questions on oil-driven inflation, AI regulation, and how Moody’s securitization data helped him spot subprime deterioration in 2006.
What the AI Boom Looks Like From Inside Cisco with Sam Badri | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 77
Sam Badri argues Cisco is benefiting from an AI-driven networking upgrade cycle, with hyperscale demand and campus refreshes lifting growth. He also says AI adoption is still early, with most users stuck at simple prompts while data-center power, density, and grid constraints become the real bottlenecks.
The Enron-Era Tricks Are Back in AI: How These Companies Are Hiding Their Debt | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues that AI infrastructure spending is reviving Enron-style off-balance-sheet financing, with Oracle, Meta, and other hyperscalers using structures that obscure debt and leverage. He also weighs macro pressure from oil and the 10-year yield, critiques Meta’s Muse agentic AI, and answers a mailbag question on shorting against the box.
Stock Picking in Difficult Times with George Noble | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 76
George Noble and Steve Eisman argue that macro has reasserted itself, with deficits, higher rates, and inflation constraints reshaping how stocks trade. They also make bearish cases on AI capex, Nvidia concentration, and the valuations of Tesla and SpaceX.
Why Dario Amodei and Sam Altman Are Faking the AI Doomsday Crisis | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues that recent AI doomsday rhetoric from leaders like Dario Amodei and Sam Altman is a strategic move to slow competition and build regulatory moats, not a genuine extinction warning. He also covers higher rates, a FICO short update, the Senate blocking the Clarity Act, and practical ways for investors to reduce AI exposure without leaving equities.
The Big Short Partners Reunite: Rates, AI, Gold and Two Stock Picks | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 75
Steve Eisman reunites with Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins for a macro-heavy conversation about Treasury/rate policy, fiscal constraints, and why they think gold looks attractive. They also dig into AI concentration, OpenAI’s economics, and hedge fund shorting mechanics, including how modern pods structure long-short bets.
AI Terminator Fears Grow & Rates Breach 4.9% | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman centers the week on rising long-term yields, arguing that 10-year Treasuries above 4.9% are a headwind for stocks and the real economy. He also weighs in on AI exuberance, OpenAI pricing, Oracle, Qualcomm-Amazon, FICO, Macy’s, GameStop, and gold versus Treasuries.
P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74
Ryan Tunis lays out why he is cautious on personal auto and more selective in commercial P&C, arguing that pricing, claims frequency, and the current cycle favor certain names over others. He is more constructive on insurance brokers and sees AIG as the clearest self-help story, while remaining skeptical on Trupanion and wary of Kinsale’s cyclical risks.
The AI Trade, Rising Rates, and Why the Market Is Still Standing | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 73
Steve Eisman, Jason Trennert, and Chris Verrone argue that the market’s resilience this year reflects strong underlying growth, even as war, tariffs, AI capex, and rate volatility keep investors nervous. The conversation focuses on extreme S&P concentration, hyperscaler spending pressure, private equity illiquidity, and why higher rates may still be needed before equities truly crack.
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom’s biggest fragility is the market’s dependence on OpenAI and Anthropic, which he says have little moat and could pressure hyperscaler margins if pricing turns or growth slows. He also contrasts AI with past crises by saying there is still no hard demand data, then applies his upstart-vs-incumbent framework to Netflix, Circle, Bitcoin, and software beneficiaries like CoreWeave, Supermicro, and Cisco.
Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72
Steve Eisman and guests Glenn Schorr and Ken Worthington map how agentic AI could compress brokers’ and banks’ profits from customer cash, while regulators may limit how far optimization can go. They also dig into private credit’s weakening retail flows and looming software refinancing risk, then debate crypto’s real use cases, stablecoins, and whether Bitcoin still has a compelling thesis.
SpaceX Disappoints, AI's Free Cash Flow Shrinks, Meta Struggles | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues that AI infrastructure spending is compressing free cash flow across hyperscalers, while select companies like Palantir, Arista, Caterpillar, and Lilly are showing clearer winners. He also dissects SpaceX’s mixed earnings, the leverage-and-correlation collapse of a hedge fund, and lingering stress in private credit.
250 Years of American Capitalism: Hamilton, the GFC, & the AI Boom | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 71
Steve Eisman and Adrian Wooldridge use 250 years of U.S. economic history to trace how Hamilton’s centralized, commercial vision beat Jefferson’s agrarian model, why railroads and corporations transformed American capitalism, and how recurring boom-bust cycles shaped financial crises. They also debate the Great Financial Crisis, with Wooldridge emphasizing housing policy and Greenspan’s critique of Fannie and Freddie, while Eisman argues leverage and risk-weighted assets were the real fault line.
The AI Debate Gets More Complicated: Microsoft Has a Win, Meta Stumbles | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman says the AI trade has become much more complicated as capex, weak moats, and cheaper open-source models pressure valuations across the stack. He contrasts strong hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon with more vulnerable LLM providers, while also reviewing a packed earnings week for Visa, Meta, Apple, Bloom Energy, Quanta, Charter, FICO, and others.
The AI Revolution: Who Wins, Who Loses & the SaaSpocalypse | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 70
Steve Eisman hosts a debate on whether AI is still early-stage infrastructure spending or already heading into a valuation and ROI reckoning. Gil Luria and Dan Ives argue over winners and losers across chips, hyperscalers, software, and data centers, with Oracle, Google, Apple, Palantir, and Salesforce at the center.
Google's Negative Cash Flow and the AI Capex Reckoning | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues the AI trade is shifting from hype to a capital-intensive reckoning, driven by cheaper Chinese models, rising capex, and negative free cash flow at major tech names. He also reviews a mixed batch of earnings across defense, software, industrials, and private markets, then answers mailbag questions on bank stocks and the mechanics of shorting.
AI Has a Power Problem: Why the U.S. Power Grid Can't Keep Up | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 69
Steve Eisman and Ben Callo argue that AI’s biggest bottleneck is not chips but power: U.S. grid capacity, interconnection, permitting, and labor. The episode then maps the winners across that buildout, with GE Vernova, Tesla energy, solar, and nuclear all framed as long-duration beneficiaries.
Bank Earnings Just Gave the Market a Much Needed Confidence Boost | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues that bank earnings were broadly strong and not signaling recession, with benign credit quality and powerful trading and investment banking results. He also highlights AI-driven infrastructure pressure, Circle’s stablecoin economics, PayPal’s competitive challenges, and several notable non-bank earnings misses and beats.
AI Dominates Economy and Markets with Torsten Slok | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 68
Torsten Slok argues the U.S. economy is being propped up by an unusually large AI capex boom, reindustrialization, and tax-cut-driven consumer support, but that the benefits are unevenly distributed in a K-shaped economy. He also says the Fed is unlikely to cut, AI spending is becoming more capital intensive, and markets are increasingly concentrated in AI across equities, credit, and venture capital.
Why the Entire Market Is Now a Single Bet on AI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues that AI has become the dominant driver of both U.S. growth and market returns, leaving diversification largely illusory. He also comments on Circle’s drop after a stablecoin consortium announcement, Nike’s mixed quarter, and answers mailbag questions about his own portfolio and reading habits.
Who Wins the Midterms & What It Means for Markets with Dan Clifton | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 67
Dan Clifton says the 2026 midterms are being shaped by Trump’s tariff-driven drop in economic approval, making a Democratic House flip likely and the Senate the key market battleground. He also argues tariffs have shifted from headwind to tailwind, the Fed is really debating balance-sheet shrinkage under Kevin Warsh-style thinking, and AI/data centers may become a major political and market issue.
The Market's Biggest Warning Signs Right Now with Todd Sohn | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 66
Todd Sohn argues that charts and ETF flows now tell a story of extreme market concentration, with semiconductors still leading while software and several mega-cap tech names look weaker. He also warns that ETFs, especially leveraged and thematic products, have become a dominant market structure force that can hide how concentrated portfolios really are.
The Q2 2026 Report Card: Who Won, Who Lost, and Why | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman’s Q2 wrap argues the quarter’s winners were AI infrastructure plays, especially semiconductors, while software and consulting stocks were punished as investors priced in AI disruption and hyperscaler capex intensity. He also reviews volatility in SpaceX, bad news for Google and Nike, a strong GEV power-demand setup, and closes with a critique of Greenspan plus a Europe regulation mailbag answer.
The Real State of the American Consumer w/ Three Evercore Analysts | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 65
Steve Eisman and three Evercore analysts argue that the American consumer is increasingly split: high-income households are still spending, but the middle and lower end are under pressure from inflation, gas prices, and price shock. The episode also covers AI in retail, Nike’s channel missteps, packaged food headwinds from GLP-1s and wellness trends, and winners like Walmart, Costco, Ralph Lauren, and parts of casual dining.
Anthropic Gets Shut Down By the Government and the AI Story Gets More Complicated | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman says the Anthropic government setback underscores how AI companies are colliding with regulation and geopolitics. He then argues the AI boom is still real, but the economics are shifting toward a capital-intensive, winner-take-less-all infrastructure race.